Simple and approximate upper-limit estimation of future precipitation return-values

We present estimates for an upper limit for twenty-year return-values for 24-hr precipitation at different locations in Europe and a crude method to quantify bounds of likely intervals. Our results suggest an increase by as much as 40–50 % projected for 2100, assuming a high emission scenario, RCP8.5. The new strategy is based on combining physics with the limited available information, and utilises the covariance between the mean seasonal variations in precipitation and the North Atlantic saturation vapour pressure to estimate the maximum effect that a temperature change can have on precipitation, rather than the actual expected values.

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