Simulated regional yields of spring barley in the United Kingdom under projected climate change

This paper assessed the effect of projected climate change on the grain yield of barley in fourteen administrative regions in the United Kingdom (UK). Climate data for the 2030s, 2040s and 2050s for the high emission scenario (HES), medium emissions scenario (MES) and low emissions scenario (LES) were obtained from the UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) using the Weather Generator. Simulations were performed using the AquaCrop model and statistics of simulated future yields and baseline yields were compared. The results show that climate change could be beneficial to UK barley production. For all emissions scenarios and regions, differences between the simulated average future yields (2030s–2050s) and the observed yields in the baseline period (1961–1990) ranged from 1.4 to 4 tons·ha−1.

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